Heading into COP, Brazil’s Amazon deforestation rate is falling, as are areas affected by fire
As the world’s attention turns toward COP30 in Belém next month, the story of Brazil’s Amazon is shifting—though not quite in a straightforward way. According to the government’s satellite-based monitoring system, INPE’s PRODES, deforestation in the region known as the “Legal Amazon” totaled 5,796 square kilometers for the 12 months ending July 31st, 2025. That’s 11% drop from 6,518 square kilometers in the same period a year earlier and the lowest annual tally since 2014. Meanwhile, the Brazilian NGO Imazon independently estimated a similar decline using its near-real-time detection system, SAD.
Deforestation also fell in Brazil’s Cerrado, a wooded savanna ecosystem that neighbors the Amazon rainforest. Clearing fell 11.5% to 7,235 square kilometers, a six-year low.
On its face, the data suggest progress. The steep fall under Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva—first during his initial presidency from 2003 to 2011, then again since January 2023—marks a clear reversal of his predecessor’s tenure, when deforestation soared as protections were rolled back and razing of forests were actively encouraged.
But while land clearing for farms has edged down, another threat looms. The nature of forest loss is changing, and fire now plays a far larger role. Forest degradation from selective logging, cumulative clearing, and the “fish-bone” sprawl of roads—combined with hotter, drier conditions—is turning wide stretches of the Amazon into tinder. Areas that once lay deep within the forest’s humid core are now drying out, leaving them vulnerable when agricultural burns escape control.
In 2024, Brazil was affected by an exceptional drought, which left rivers dry and temperatures set heat records. Brazil lost 2.78 million hectares of primary forest, the highest figure since 2019. Roughly 60% of that loss came from fire, which burned through six times more forest than the year before. Yet such losses are not counted in the official deforestation statistics, which—as in most countries—track clear-cutting rather than burning.
That distinction matters at the climate talks. This year, however, the burned areas detected by INPE’s DETER system are down 45%, from 39,310 square kilometers in the 12 months to September 2024 to 21,543 square kilometers in the same period ending September 2025. Forest degradation has also fallen sharply.
Still, the broader picture is complicated. Governance under Lula is having an effect: stronger oversight, renewed enforcement, stepped up funding, and clearer policy signals. Yet climate-driven forces and the legacy of past damage are pushing the Amazon toward a new regime of vulnerability. Loss from fire and degradation is becoming as consequential as direct deforestation.
As Brazil prepares to host COP30 in Belém in November, the Amazon’s fate sits high on the agenda. One major item will be the Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF), a $125 billion fund first proposed by Brazil in 2023. If operational before 2030, it could generate around $4 billion annually for more than 70 tropical forest nations. COP30 may be its make-or-break moment.
Any optimism, though, will be tempered. New infrastructure projects, such as the controversial BR-319 highway through one of the Amazon’s most intact zones, remain under debate. Such developments can open access to settlers and speculators, accelerating forest loss. Gold prices are rising, governance in frontier regions is weak, and policy uncertainty lingers: Brazil suspended, reinstated, and re-suspended the soy moratorium, leaving its future unclear.
Why does this matter beyond the canopy? Because the Amazon is more than a forest. Its trees draw water from the soil, release it through transpiration, and create “flying rivers” that stabilize temperatures and carry rainfall across South America’s farmlands and cities. The forest cools local air and powers hydropower generation. Its decline erodes landscapes, livelihoods, and the planet’s climate balance.
So where do things stand now? Official data indicate that deforestation is slowing. Fire activity has dropped by nearly half. Yet the region remains in a fragile equilibrium, shaped by old wounds, new extremes, and shifting land-use pressures.
In other words, the Amazon is not out of the woods. At COP30 Brazil will present a forest story of progress—but also of peril. What matters now for the Amazon is whether the downward curve continues, and whether policy, finance, and on-the-ground governance can keep pace with a changing climate and evolving threats.
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